SAPNRG – Sapura Energy Jatuh 30% Selepas Announce Rights Issue

Bursa Malaysia dikejutkan dengan kejatuhan mendadak Sapura Energy (SAPNRG) pada hari Jumaat lepas, sejurus selepas Sapura Energy mengumumkan bahawa mereka akan melaksanakan Rights Issue.

Rights Issue Memberi Kesan ‘Dilutive’ Kepada Pemegang Saham Sedia Ada

1. Rights Issue dikatakan adalah sebahagian dari strategi besar yang merangkumi penyenaraian bahagian ‘exploration’ dan ‘production’ di Bursa Malaysia.
2. Saham Sapura Energy sememangnya sudah jatuh sebelum ini disebabkan kerugian dari sudut laporan kewangan.
3. Dengan mengumumkan Rights Issue yang memberi kesan ‘dilutive’ kepada pemegang saham sedia ada, ia menjadi satu lagi berita buruk kepada para pelabur.
4. Rights Issue itu antara lain akan digunakan untuk membayar hutang yang ditanggung oleh Sapura Energy.
5. Market Capitalisation semasa Sapura Energy adalah rm2.5 Billion, hutangnya adalah RM16 Billion, manakala Rights Issue dijangka akan memberikan Rm4 Billion.

Sumber : The Star Online

Ruang Kerjasama Antara Velesto Dengan Sapura Energy

1. Hasil daripada Rights Issue, SAPNRG akan memperoleh RM4 Billion.
2. Credit Suisse percaya pemegang saham untuk jangka masa panjang akan memperoleh keuntungan kerana rights issue tersebut akan memperbaiki kedudukan kewangan mereka
3. Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) memegang 12% Sapura Energy dan akan subscribe sepenuhnya hak ke atas Rights Issue yang mereka miliki
4. Hasil dari tindakan PNB tersebut, Credit Suisse percaya ianya membuka ruang kepada lebih banyak kerjasama antara Velesto Energy dengan Sapura Energy.
5. Velesto Energy merupakan ‘drilling arm’ kepada PNB.

Sumber : TheEdgeMarkets

5 Pengajaran Dari Perkongsian Berkaitan Sapura Energy

Dalam proses mengkaji hal-hal yang berkaitan dengan SAPNRG atau Sapura Energy, saya terbaca satu artikel di I3nvestor yang menarik.

Antara pengajaran yang boleh diperolehi:

1. Memahami ‘thought process’ adalah penting.

   Kita perlu semak balik keputusan-keputusan yang telah kita buat pada waktu lepas.Apakah sebab kita Beli atau Jual sesuatu saham itu?Boleh tak kita mengelakkan kesilapan pada masa akan datang?

   “After that post, someone reached out to me, and I met someone I consider a close friend today. He bought in at RM0.80, and when the right issue came out yesterday, we discussed the issue, his thought process on SAPRNG and how he thinks he could have done better. And what are the things we missed out on.”

2. Belajar dari pengalaman atau kejadian yang hampir serupa tetapi sudah berlaku.

   “However, I can see something similar like Airasia in 2001 happening to it. Back when Airasia was sold to Tony for RM1, it had negative equity of roughly RM40 million and the directors had to guarantee 50%. After Tony purchased the company, he also found investors to inject roughly RM123 million into the company”

3. Bagaimana trading secara spekulatif gaya professional dengan menilai potensi pulangan (reward) dan risiko.

   “It’s looks very lucrative. (for more info, please refer to my article “The Art Of Gambling in Speculative Stocks.”Because in this case, its almost as if the majority of your bet is financed by the banks.While the upwards movement in price of the company due to increased earnings, belongs to you, the shareholder. Even the profit belongs to you!In Sapura’s case, the enterprise value of the company consist of 16% market capitalization and 84% borrowings. It’s as if the banks are funding and taking on 84% of the risk for your gamble that Sapura will survive long enough to take advantage of an increase in oil price and drilling activity.In that situation, as an equity holder, it’s a heads I win, tails you (bank) lose situation.

   Your only risk, is that the company goes bankrupt. Or the debt is swapped with equity, making your shares worth 6.26 times less in terms of % ownership of the company.

   Personally, i dont think the banks will ever push this company into a position where they need to declare bankruptcy, unlike Toys R Us, as unlike Toys R Us, i dont think its under threat from a fundamental shift in the world, or backed by assets worth far more than the company (alot of great buildings and lands).

   So the banks should still allow SAPNRG to live long enough to turnaround. But its a very tenous assumption, relying on the goodwill of others to survive.”

4. Pembahagian Teknik Dalam Sesuatu Portfolio

   “Having said that, I failed to buy Lionind at RM0.4, as I was too young and too stupid. The capital structure was fantastic, and well, there’s really no excuse. It also fit my habit of buying 1-2% positions in NTA companies.”

5. Saranan agar jual saham SAPNRG dan simpan dalam FD atau China Index.

   (nampaknya dia bullish terhadap China)

   “I hope nobody bough SAPRNG on margin, and if you did, I hope it wasn’t that bad. For those who bought it thinking it’s an investment and for the long term future, I suggest you close your account, and put all the money in FD or china stock index. You will beat 50% of the market immediately.”

Sumber : Choivo Capital/Jon Choivo

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